Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c17f3cdfab12449448aed569983e75836105644766d321b1ba0914baeb026bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 7c | 1,586$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,522$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 435.81$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 317.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 63c | 317.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 262.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 236$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 228.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 203.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 36c | 199.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 195.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 72c | 152.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 37c | 151.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 70c | 142.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 141.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 122.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 36c | 120.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 111.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 110.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 106.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 103.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 61c | 100.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 38c | 91.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 35c | 79.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 36c | 72.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 28c | 70.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 74c | 69.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 69.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 63.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 62.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 65c | 61.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 59.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 59.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 56.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 56.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 27c | 54.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 54.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 37c | 54.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 52.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 50.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 47.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 26c | 47.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 43.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 71c | 42.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 39.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 37c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 37.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 33.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 33.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 37c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 73c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…2b95backed No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.