Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54948d3da10404ba42da70e8bce7df863291e8a66a6c59d448ae5cac089f2b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 9c | 574.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 375.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 10c | 326.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 74c | 292.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 284.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 241.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 199.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 61c | 186.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 175.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 170.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 62c | 154.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 71c | 145.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 137.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 37c | 133.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 133.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 16c | 124.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 122.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 120.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…1132backed Yes | 43c | 116.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 77c | 109.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 34c | 100.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 42c | 94.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 94.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 94.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 17c | 93.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 49c | 90.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 34c | 88.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed Yes | 28c | 82.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 81.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 81.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 80.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 79.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 78.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 27c | 74.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 72.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 69.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 64.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 49c | 62.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 50c | 59.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 50c | 59.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 58.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 47c | 57.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 54.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 53.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 40c | 49.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 67c | 47.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 45c | 44.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 42c | 43.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 38.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 37.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 41c | 32.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 46c | 29.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 66c | 26.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 73c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 72c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 57c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 59c | 16.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 61c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 69c | 15.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.