NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c36c24cdf6478eaba5b6b974f1f12640e4e5340e4a8501504e3e1ebcb336d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,956 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 47c | 2,082$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.15 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,983$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 54c | 1,885$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.1 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 55c | 1,837$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.41 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 658.01$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 52c | 582.65$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.47 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 75c | 439.05$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 46c | 399.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 54c | 327$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…aa84backed Under | 54c | 213.02$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…20b2backed Over | 47c | 196.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a08…7e2fbacked Over | 47c | 194.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…43e2backed Under | 54c | 178.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 174$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 162.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 54c | 130.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…23cbbacked Under | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 42c | 101.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 68.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 54c | 34.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 33.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 33c | 31.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 67c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 55c | 25.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. SharksIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.