NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5e33fa768fab7c2b1b91b5e0814a624ae4a6c7b09a9b9b151db1e85324f3d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Islanders, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,771 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Islanders | 34c | 702.09$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Islanders | 32c | 665.42$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…ff20backed Islanders | 22c | 640.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sharks | 77c | 353.5$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 78c | 273.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sharks | 67c | 245$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…d153backed Sharks | 66c | 211.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Sharks | 66c | 202.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed Sharks | 66c | 185.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Sharks | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Islanders | 33c | 167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Islanders | 30c | 138.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sharks | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Sharks | 66c | 104.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Sharks | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Sharks | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Islanders | 34c | 80.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Islanders | 19c | 77.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Sharks | 68c | 75.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Islanders | 34c | 74.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 66c | 70.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sharks | 78c | 60.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Sharks | 66c | 59.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sharks | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Islanders | 21c | 48.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Islanders | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sharks | 67c | 31.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sharks | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sharks | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Islanders | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Sharks | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Sharks | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Sharks | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Sharks | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Sharks | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Sharks | 58c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. SharksIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.