Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c611e1630deb215b73ddaf5f75416bd30f5a6e7e47d3df3ceb07d340ed8ffff

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,233 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	0c	13,625$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	100	12%12 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes	0c	11,058$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Yes	0c	10,994$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-96.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d9…8608backed Yes	1c	8,759$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.65	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x610e…b852backed Yes	1c	2,730$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	1,846$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,569$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7259…61aabacked Yes	4c	600$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5c…dba2backed Yes	2c	577.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	2c	482.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb099…3560backed Yes	4c	374.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event