Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0f8490d016437941e5660fa2a8cd5eb4fc5ab1e4ba079786387c8eb544749c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9a4b…03d6backed Yes	0c	50,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	0c	3,425$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…7be9backed Yes	5c	2,900$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.1	95	16.8%16 W · 79 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	3c	2,564$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.61	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…5d07backed Yes	9c	1,571$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	6c	1,425$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.53	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes	6c	1,200$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.02	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes	7c	1,193$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.76	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes	1c	1,055$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	6c	972.62$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.99	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes	6c	713.84$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.83	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	5c	700.88$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.96	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f9…4cc3backed Yes	7c	694.13$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.14	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7259…61aabacked Yes	9c	566.24$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	9c	520$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	6c	459.25$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe838…b694backed Yes	8c	400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes	7c	373.88$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes	8c	341.9$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes	6c	276.92$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1,019	31.6%322 W · 697 L	-10.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a99…336bbacked Yes	8c	261.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570a…e1f0backed Yes	9c	219.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	6c	196.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Yes	9c	191.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd53…1917backed Yes	12c	172.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	152.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d6…0704backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event