Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd201108be9753b5ee8b6069ce9f9287d2931a5174bb4ef6c2daccbe3f005826b

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $119,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,096 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	1c	17,135$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.92	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes	1c	11,748$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.45	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	1c	9,236$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.64	100	12%12 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes	1c	4,375$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	79	34.2%27 W · 52 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	0c	3,632$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30bc…d6eabacked Yes	1c	3,573$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65d9…8608backed Yes	3c	3,010$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	14c	2,834$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.51	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,072$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.57	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes	5c	2,028$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.58	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Yes	3c	1,993$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.85	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-96.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	1c	1,968$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	1,933$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,753$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed Yes	2c	1,182$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	48	25%12 W · 36 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+110.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes	14c	999.97$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	87	31%27 W · 60 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes	9c	695.76$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes	4c	690.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf9…7205backed Yes	5c	587.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	2c	533.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75df…f9fdbacked Yes	12c	487.1$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.45	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	480.27$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012a…9fa9backed Yes	17c	293.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa154…4ac2backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	11c	260.95$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	15c	243.32$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6da…7b39backed Yes	13c	230.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3106…d672backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	11c	134.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	9c	124.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…03cebacked Yes	16c	112.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4f…ca52backed Yes	15c	99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ef4…b4fabacked Yes	12c	91.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	15c	76.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd79…825cbacked Yes	20c	56.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No	80c	22.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.55	128	47.7%61 W · 67 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e31…c66dbacked No	79c	22.1$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event