TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Reds, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Reds38c120,555$45,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,819.7438043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Padres62c57,663$35,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,751.0635952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Padres62c47,500$29,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,514.8748254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Padres61c32,173$19,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,547.0955053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Reds38c20,244$7,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,551.3160249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Padres61c12,239$7,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,461.871,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Padres62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20030255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Padres60c9,170$5,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,540.672,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Reds51c8,390$4,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,113.9833554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds40c8,318$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,984.681,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Reds38c7,216$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.9233845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Reds37c6,459$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.3838047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Padres67c6,096$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.7569249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Reds46c4,964$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.0512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Reds44c4,859$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.4121847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Padres38c4,167$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.522941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e9…0501backed Reds36c3,891$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.513046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Padres63c3,671$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30011345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Reds39c3,575$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.5878445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcf…d6a9backed Padres64c3,301$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.642864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.9893240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres62c2,117$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.492,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Padres59c2,000$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.076538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Padres63c1,987$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2522626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Padres62c1,740$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.171,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Reds37c1,680$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.239,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Reds61c1,670$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2325551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Reds39c1,626$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.3668769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Padres58c1,606$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.824,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Reds63c1,586$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.7131248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Padres64c1,398$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8956,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec5…b23bbacked Reds50c1,337$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.012733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Padres64c1,335$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.463152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Padres32c1,259$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.0110041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Reds36c1,234$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.7350843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Padres62c1,209$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.581,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Reds37c1,081$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.021,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Padres61c1,033$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.8916551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Reds39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Padres62c975$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.520748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Reds36c965$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.612436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Padres63c854.05$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0595850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Reds37c854.05$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0557744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Reds48c766$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.026,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Reds36c708$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1244443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Padres54c656$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.564531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfa1…80f8backed Padres8c599.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Padres63c555.56$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35031254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds60c555$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.71,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Reds38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.3295930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Reds39c502.55$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.5476456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Padres63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31514148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Reds37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Reds42c478.91$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.771,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc2…4bd3backed Padres63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x834b…a37ebacked Padres64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Padres58c413.79$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+49.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x45c2…0f74backed Padres64c393.75$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Reds46c386.14$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5870841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed Padres63c348.71$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Padres63c337.1$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.891,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd254…80a2backed Padres36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Padres70c285.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Padres37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012459.7%74 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Reds37c269$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4724346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Padres64c262.81$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16799951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Reds68c227.84$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.918454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Padres69c215.74$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8614966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Reds37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Padres5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10857.1%6 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Reds38c197.37$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3740144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Reds37c189.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1914146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Padres63c171$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.771,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Padres61c169$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5715033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Padres60c166.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Padres64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009246.7%43 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28e…86c8backed Reds46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.752860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Reds45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7727733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Reds37c135.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1410154.5%55 W · 46 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Reds38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5843153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Padres64c123.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Reds67c121.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.998366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Padres54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.818446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Padres63c118.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Padres61c102.16$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2679740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Padres50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024444.3%108 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9b…b26dbacked Padres66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Padres63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Padres31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3145732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Reds36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6435245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Padres62c99.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9929145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Reds36c97.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.226747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Padres64c93.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Reds34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2454441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ea…f31cbacked Reds36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.332737%10 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Padres36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Padres64c81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.841,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ce…316ebacked Padres63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.416036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.