Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8356d9a486afff7be2119493d0599f07d6db8d479d99d9f953a05f28c28fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 2,717$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.76 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 56c | 1,198$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.13 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 592.08$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 565.33$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 444.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 322$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 315.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 223.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 208$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 206$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 188.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 63c | 158.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 157.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 149$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 136.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 135.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 125.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 123.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 59c | 106.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 104.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 101.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 99.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 85.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 34c | 69.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 60c | 64.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 63.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 63.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 60c | 60.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 61c | 59.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed No | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 57.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 34c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 47.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 44.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 41.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 40.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 33.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…d3c7backed No | 60c | 32.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 46c | 24.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 62c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 73c | 17.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 62c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.