Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8ea6303692bab064d7a57d3220d7cf693c852631a2503ca887d014ed73dfbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 429.18$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 374.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 15c | 335.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 59c | 237.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 218.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 214.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 188.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 162$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 36c | 155.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 139.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 138.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 136$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 129$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 103.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 98.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 98.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 88.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 77.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 75.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 74.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 69.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 67.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 65.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 62.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 61.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 60.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 58.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 75c | 56.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 52.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 32c | 50.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 48.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 41.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 40.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 62c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 38.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 35.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 68c | 35.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 35c | 32.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 31.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 29.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 23.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 62c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 70c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.