NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cae71907e2965f05072725f9bff1747e57bf5703512544fae236573cf8d7977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 9,663$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,638 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 48c | 5,568$2,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.64 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 49c | 2,140$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.52 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 50c | 1,510$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.99 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 52c | 1,409$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.44 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 50c | 1,387$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.5 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,143$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 937$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 48c | 812.5$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 806.33$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.04 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Over | 47c | 612$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 524$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 410$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 368.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b1e9backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.