NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb67c3ef2d460353265e75434aa8e6270b64b9aefd748100084cc52939401a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 15,465$7,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,824.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 47c | 4,750$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.5 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Under | 48c | 2,177$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 1,479$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.62 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 46c | 1,183$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.39 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 51c | 977.87$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.71 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 816.33$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.69 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 51c | 663.01$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.14 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 532$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 485$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 428$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 46c | 420$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 260.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.