NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc8d4576cca603ebcc7859dde2975df5a1eb326656f72060df411df1bab3ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,299.99 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 51c | 13,932$7,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,088.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Thunder | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Timberwolves | 48c | 7,254$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder | 52c | 6,600$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.08 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 51c | 4,934$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.57 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 47c | 3,181$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.11 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Thunder | 53c | 3,000$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.22 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Thunder | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,517$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 52c | 1,424$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,130$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.27 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 761.67$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.26 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 50c | 545$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Thunder | 55c | 282.95$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder | 56c | 278.57$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 208.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Thunder | 55c | 172.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Thunder | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Thunder | 52c | 73.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…ac33backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Timberwolves | 48c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.