NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5e74808f6b6ef8b151e61ef1174e1a4e216976e0c247134021b6b5c2808f67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 13,782$6,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,732.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 6,937$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.13 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…0938backed Under | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…aa2cbacked Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 5,250$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,628$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 1,107$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.41 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Under | 50c | 714$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 255 | 54.1%138 W · 117 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 638$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.74 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 535.74$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.51 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 478$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 462$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 398$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 224$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…e5aabacked Under | 53c | 199.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 64.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 53c | 35.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…0b05backed Under | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.