NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d608ea43c5d942407a039c8c24af77f761c26a369210862419cd94aa0ec84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder | 53c | 15,506$8,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,217.99 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 47c | 10,249$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,431.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 46c | 8,364$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 53c | 8,302$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.96 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Timberwolves | 47c | 6,150$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.75 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Thunder | 55c | 4,927$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Thunder | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 1,848$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.06 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,065$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.15 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Timberwolves | 45c | 911.11$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.11 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 52c | 830$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 47c | 649.98$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 46c | 470$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 402.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 56c | 400$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 45c | 384.19$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 377$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.81 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 49c | 348.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves | 45c | 333.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Thunder | 56c | 266.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…d954backed Timberwolves | 49c | 235$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 216.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Thunder | 51c | 206.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Timberwolves | 44c | 199.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Thunder | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a4…e31ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 193$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 166.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…e907backed Thunder | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Thunder | 53c | 152.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…686bbacked Thunder | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Thunder | 57c | 131.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…d4f2backed Thunder | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 110.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Timberwolves | 35c | 106.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Timberwolves | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Thunder | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Timberwolves | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Thunder | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…cf06backed Thunder | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Thunder | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Timberwolves | 47c | 75.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Timberwolves | 44c | 67.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 48c | 58.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…540abacked Timberwolves | 46c | 55.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Thunder | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Thunder | 52c | 48.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Timberwolves | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Thunder | 51c | 46.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Thunder | 50c | 46.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Thunder | 53c | 45.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Thunder | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Thunder | 51c | 32.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 48c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Timberwolves | 46c | 31.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Thunder | 50c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…7e00backed Thunder | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…43d1backed Thunder | 68c | 25.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…2c3dbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…c3cdbacked Thunder | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Timberwolves | 46c | 23.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Thunder | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Thunder | 57c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.