Tennis · resolved market
Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb3fa8d76f15fa1cce7ac6fc1fa0448c58747ea62d046946a3e9adbc77bbccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Over 3.5 | 50c | 11,109$5,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,554.6 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +12.2wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…c066backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 3,770$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.94 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 2,623$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.34 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.23 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 1,458$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.07 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 1,096$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,070$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.55 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under 3.5 | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 999.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 554.07$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 450.14$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.09 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 421.74$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.87 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 401.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 372.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed Over 3.5 | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 100.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…8718backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 94.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 55.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 49.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 32.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9df1backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…d472backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 27.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under 3.5 | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 19.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben SheltonRaphael Collignon won
- Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs SheltonCollignon won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)Collignon won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Collignon (+2.5)Collignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.