Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ade86a19468fe5f2ee9c4f575257cc76760d65c17a03bce4c7ef0ea7dd1c974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Collignonof Shelton, Collignon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Collignon | 53c | 6,500$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.23 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shelton | 47c | 5,801$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.3 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Collignon | 55c | 1,826$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.36 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Shelton | 45c | 1,160$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.86 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Shelton | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Shelton | 51c | 387.24$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Collignon | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Collignon | 50c | 219$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Shelton | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Shelton | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Collignon | 49c | 192.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Shelton | 47c | 180.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Shelton | 49c | 143.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Collignon | 46c | 138.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Shelton | 54c | 138.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Shelton | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…7e7cbacked Shelton | 50c | 103.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Shelton | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Shelton | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Shelton | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shelton | 42c | 75.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Collignon | 58c | 75.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Collignon | 54c | 72.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Shelton | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Shelton | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Shelton | 48c | 55.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed Collignon | 53c | 53.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Shelton | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Collignon | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Collignon | 52c | 39.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 604 | 46.7%282 W · 322 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shelton | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Shelton | 48c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Collignon | 78c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Collignon | 52c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Shelton | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c3a0backed Shelton | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Collignon | 56c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)this page
- Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben SheltonRaphael Collignon won
- Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs SheltonCollignon won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Collignon (+2.5)Collignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.