CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1eade207e0fcc013b66afcfe670a07d82db58e2e4583811bb147e4df1b9adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis | 2c | 2,782$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis | 16c | 2,747$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.12 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 2,645$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.88 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed Astralis | 7c | 1,363$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Astralis | 27c | 886.7$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis | 3c | 837.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis | 10c | 824.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 781$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Astralis | 36c | 695.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 145 | 32.4%47 W · 98 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…22a6backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 525.01$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 19c | 495.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked Astralis | 14c | 358$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 477 | 38.4%183 W · 294 L | -26.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 320.59$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Astralis | 5c | 299.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Astralis | 31c | 249.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 234$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Astralis | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 476 | 41.6%198 W · 278 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…54bdbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 182.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 253 | 50.2%127 W · 126 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 165.21$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Astralis | 32c | 155.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed Astralis | 34c | 148.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afb…b4d5backed Astralis | 23c | 137.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Astralis | 18c | 132.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f7…4de1backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 120.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Astralis | 31c | 117.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Astralis | 14c | 105.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…8c8ebacked Astralis | 15c | 100.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…fcc9backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Astralis | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Astralis | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…03d1backed Astralis | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 82.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Astralis | 28c | 81.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…ae42backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 76.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…06f5backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 72.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…f1e3backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 71.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Astralis | 16c | 63.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 63.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Astralis | 29c | 46.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 696 | 24%167 W · 529 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…7703backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…d466backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…0194backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.