TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,116
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,116 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb726…0664backed Natus Vincere69c26,903$18,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,312.7312649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Astralis29c6,179$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.293,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis39c4,781$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.151,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Astralis37c3,518$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30032548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis32c3,512$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.671,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Astralis38c3,267$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.826046.9%122 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Astralis7c3,154$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.825,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ca…b467backed Natus Vincere62c2,404$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.739769.1%67 W · 30 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Astralis24c1,816$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.059038.9%35 W · 55 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked Astralis1c1,345$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570036.1%253 W · 447 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed Natus Vincere45c1,148$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.3819732.5%64 W · 133 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Astralis23c1,024$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7747738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Astralis24c959.51$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.873,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Astralis22c912.65$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4647641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Astralis41c897.75$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.767,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Astralis17c800$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13628453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Astralis55c720.44$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Astralis22c699.03$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.741,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Astralis34c684$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.031,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Astralis9c615.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.832,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Astralis43c558.14$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere64c554.54$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.294,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Astralis55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis20c542.43$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5458961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18039851.3%204 W · 194 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed Natus Vincere55c499.96$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.985543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Astralis38c462.93$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9110335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis11c404.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis19c390.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.272,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked Natus Vincere63c341$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3410446.2%48 W · 56 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Astralis40c340.81$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3265650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c9…9c9dbacked Astralis20c326.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+58.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Astralis50c301.24$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.627955.7%44 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Astralis42c288.1$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12125846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Astralis36c274.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Astralis54c255.56$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13883543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Natus Vincere50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12592152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49d…f05cbacked Astralis55c245.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.216043.3%26 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed Astralis39c245.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.085016%8 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Astralis9c220.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.256224.2%15 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Astralis36c218.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.942,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Natus Vincere56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed Astralis35c195.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2618037.8%68 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis33c176.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.494,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis10c174$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1698…68e8backed Natus Vincere62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2911470.2%80 W · 34 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Astralis33c152.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.141,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere50c150.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5952834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Astralis12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1831933.5%107 W · 212 L-0.8wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x464b…06f5backed Astralis22c135.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305332.1%17 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6976…3185backed Astralis39c133.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.643545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Natus Vincere57c115$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.159243.5%40 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed Astralis33c113.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.286521.5%14 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Astralis24c98.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.072,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Astralis40c90.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.181,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Natus Vincere59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.948943.6%213 W · 276 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Astralis41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed Natus Vincere62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.655954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Astralis42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad6…a93cbacked Natus Vincere63c67.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.853647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4666…5fc4backed Natus Vincere49c61.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Astralis45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517053.5%91 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Natus Vincere60c51.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.875246.2%24 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe200…5886backed Astralis39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012955%71 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Natus Vincere58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2125143.8%110 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Natus Vincere53c49.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4916448.8%80 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Natus Vincere58c48.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2873658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4de…00b4backed Astralis42c47.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208457.1%48 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Astralis44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020052.5%105 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Astralis38c45.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3159647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa695…c8a4backed Astralis53c41.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224146.3%19 W · 22 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-28%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7730…df57backed Astralis41c39.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.514858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Astralis30c38.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6269624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ca…35cabacked Astralis54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4490…504ebacked Natus Vincere79c36.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.49580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Astralis41c30.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.627147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7791…5f8abacked Astralis36c30.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked Natus Vincere64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.812132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…f425backed Natus Vincere73c27.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.49850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee81…328cbacked Natus Vincere54c21.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.742634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.