Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6c0bc6bb541484ba5a1ebbdc00697d13c3b958437d7d62a4ea6fed34254958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,878$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,275$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 1,232$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,165$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 3c | 996.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 885.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 5c | 810.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 6c | 728.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 693.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 8c | 671$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 2c | 639.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 4c | 573.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 548.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 3c | 509.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 3c | 504.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 485.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 457.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 447.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 5c | 447.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 6c | 376.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 372.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 5c | 274.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 4c | 267.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed Yes | 4c | 260.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 13c | 237.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 6c | 220.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 7c | 220.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 217.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 7c | 212.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 13c | 206.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 12c | 196.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 181.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 7c | 158.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 9c | 149.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 8c | 128.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 13c | 123.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 13c | 111.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.