Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e64e85f07d9d89de7cc0e14f610435c42db47154a5502622597036a4d1e31c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 24c | 4,997$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.23 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,784$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 4c | 999.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 76c | 989.99$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 877.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…ce9ebacked Yes | 6c | 860.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 794.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 6c | 363.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 325.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 4c | 311.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…14e5backed Yes | 5c | 278.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 25c | 239.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 236.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 229.5$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 209.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 23c | 200.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 198.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 193.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed No | 76c | 172.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 8c | 171.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 133.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked No | 76c | 128.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 76c | 128.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 128.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 22c | 114.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 76c | 97.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 11c | 94.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 25c | 77.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 27c | 67.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 76c | 64.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 63.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 80c | 61.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 26c | 52.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…9639backed Yes | 21c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 32.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 76c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 80c | 25.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 76c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 78c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 79c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 76c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked No | 80c | 13.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.