TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes1c31,848$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.782321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e44…9847backed Yes10c1,031$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…198dbacked Yes1c1,031$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.312441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes2c949.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6614645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes2c937.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.449239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c1…f170backed Yes79c739.94$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No49c717.62$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.1951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes55c701.37$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.92,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf14a…86d2backed Yes6c658.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes43c627.79$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes66c584.88$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c548.62$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes34c485.82$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.735,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes29c440.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.612832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c438.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No79c434.38$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.46369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked No38c420$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.42420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ad…545dbacked No10c407.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.411729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No32c384.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.6659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes54c378$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.833644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes40c376.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes21c303.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.025427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes24c293.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes22c280.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No55c273.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.31,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No76c263.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.152,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f58…e3fabacked No56c259.14$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.771118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes57c250.23$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-81.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed No62c246.49$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.495453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes40c244.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.738643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c241.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.481,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…b8a2backed Yes35c239.89$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes26c231.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes30c225.28$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8082…d196backed Yes74c197.54$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No59c192.94$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0128839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes64c192.48$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.461931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes48c191.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes40c187.81$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes34c182.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No24c171.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6527560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes59c170.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.735846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes24c167.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.451,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9b…61e2backed Yes72c160.75$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.12757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes28c159.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.865050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0344…7f86backed Yes40c157.95$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.691435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes36c154.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes30c153.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.522441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.55547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c149.52$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.552,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes24c146.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c132.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No75c130.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.888067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes26c129.81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0727130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes52c128.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.535450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes25c127.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.325729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed No45c124.27$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.356657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes9c120.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes41c115.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0417135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No75c113.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7742469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes22c111.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes27c109.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d5…55f7backed Yes60c107.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.281833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes37c103.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.263250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes27c103$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.819344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No74c102.58$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabc6…acb4backed No77c101.75$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.371764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes60c101.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.643324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes24c101.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4728718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes41c99.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.775648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a50…d416backed Yes57c98.34$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9b…467fbacked Yes68c96.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes25c95.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.871,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb740…e9f6backed Yes74c92.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes57c91.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.981,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No45c90.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.531,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes36c89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.046041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c87.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.982,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes27c86.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca85…cdd8backed Yes34c83.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.071050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…506bbacked Yes24c83.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No43c80.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8511925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcc6e…35a2backed Yes55c79.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes42c79.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1423738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…14e5backed Yes41c79.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed Yes67c77.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1811770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes24c76.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.267126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c75.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes55c75.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7211122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c75.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No76c74.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9216764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes25c72.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.511225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes25c70.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.694139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes27c69.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5310059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes45c68.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6815545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes21c65.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.822343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c64.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.