Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd192ca949526bd07d873d3fdf723bd36e66d716ac33ae04ad3877aa7407542dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 1c | 31,848$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.78 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e44…9847backed Yes | 10c | 1,031$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,031$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 2c | 949.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 2c | 937.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…f170backed Yes | 79c | 739.94$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 717.62$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.19 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 55c | 701.37$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 6c | 658.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 43c | 627.79$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.02 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 66c | 584.88$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.47 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 548.62$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 485.82$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 29c | 440.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 438.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 79c | 434.38$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 38c | 420$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 10c | 407.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 384.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.66 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 54c | 378$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 40c | 376.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 21c | 303.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 24c | 293.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 280.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 273.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 263.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…e3fabacked No | 56c | 259.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes | 57c | 250.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed No | 62c | 246.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 40c | 244.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 241.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…b8a2backed Yes | 35c | 239.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 231.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 30c | 225.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 74c | 197.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 59c | 192.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 64c | 192.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 48c | 191.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 40c | 187.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 34c | 182.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 24c | 171.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 59c | 170.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 167.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 72c | 160.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 28c | 159.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 40c | 157.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 154.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 30c | 153.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 149.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 146.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 132.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 75c | 130.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 129.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 52c | 128.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 25c | 127.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 45c | 124.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 9c | 120.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 41c | 115.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 113.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 111.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 27c | 109.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 60c | 107.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 37c | 103.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 102.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 77c | 101.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 60c | 101.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 101.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 41c | 99.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…d416backed Yes | 57c | 98.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…467fbacked Yes | 68c | 96.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…e9f6backed Yes | 74c | 92.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 91.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 45c | 90.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 87.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 27c | 86.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…cdd8backed Yes | 34c | 83.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 43c | 80.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…35a2backed Yes | 55c | 79.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 79.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…14e5backed Yes | 41c | 79.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 67c | 77.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 24c | 76.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 75.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 55c | 75.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 75.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 74.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 25c | 72.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 25c | 70.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 27c | 69.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 45c | 68.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 21c | 65.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.