TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,429 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c828.3$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes63c662.26$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.9742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c576.05$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No12c526.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No40c512.83$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes32c465.95$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.625344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes48c395.63$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.732321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes47c378.29$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.927146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes45c341.66$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.246657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No39c302.49$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes46c294.57$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.224963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes54c289.93$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.635427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes29c269.44$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.781,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes10c263.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.8708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c249.9$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.161,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes38c237.07$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1488643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes36c232.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ad…545dbacked Yes41c231.15$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.861729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No40c227.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8513250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed No52c218.14$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.113050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1619919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No75c197.9$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes52c195.68$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.925846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes53c185.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c177.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.741,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c176.18$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes51c166.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.121,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c165.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.292,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c160.47$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed Yes36c158.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes43c139.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1346444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No50c130.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes46c123.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cf…7ddfbacked No66c118.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.23560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes40c116.46$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4411223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes20c114.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.414738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c112.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No50c111.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0534250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c109.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes15c106.73$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes53c104.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0913260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes33c102.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.599239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…1291backed Yes29c101.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.231421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d5…55f7backed Yes60c101.13$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.561833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes49c100.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0845238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes13c99.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0430131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No65c99.34$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.575547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes52c98.64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.532441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ca…128abacked No51c97.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.612045%9 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes33c96.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6919160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes49c96.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.751361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes46c94.71$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes41c94.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.615648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No25c93.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x053b…5e50backed Yes31c89.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes34c89.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.066041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No54c84.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No63c83.57$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes47c80.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.710640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes48c80.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0344…7f86backed Yes51c80.07$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No61c79.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes37c75.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.192832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a50…d416backed Yes38c74.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes37c73.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.617138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No54c73.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7133567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes23c73.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes53c71.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.93855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No59c70.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c69.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.322,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No51c67.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.831,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c9…4a8bbacked No23c66.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a3…3150backed Yes17c65.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+100.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No55c65.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6416764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes60c64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes55c63.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.932259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes17c61.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.174025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed Yes37c61.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.781450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff8…935abacked Yes23c58.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.25650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfda8…e905backed No56c57.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.133661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes57c57.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5298236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes31c56.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.456848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadc4…314cbacked Yes48c56.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes77c56.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…14e5backed Yes37c55.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4484…a7a5backed Yes40c55.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes33c54.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988a…9e6fbacked No50c54.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f1…676dbacked Yes30c53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes50c52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8082…d196backed Yes40c51.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c0…cb52backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d0…5009backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ec…e369backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.