NFL · resolved market
WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d89de8c15570f4df959a5857e6a1f774681b0d9eac23144518dd3a2bda38fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 2,369$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.84 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 50c | 1,768$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 1,074$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 988$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.12 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 50c | 773.77$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.89 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 691.08$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.63 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 655$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.55 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 347.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 168.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 37c | 59.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-0.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. LionsLions won
- Commanders vs. Lions: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: DET (-1.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-2.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-4.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)DET won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 35.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 37.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.