NFL · resolved market
Spread: DET (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8113cb677337ff39aff7449cbccc9d3bf605f4ea7e74ea5017db7ce751d0708e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WASof DET, WAS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed DET | 48c | 3,707$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.61 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked WAS | 51c | 2,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.05 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked WAS | 53c | 840$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed WAS | 50c | 530.3$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed WAS | 51c | 425$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.2 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed DET | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed WAS | 69c | 51.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…de7cbacked WAS | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…3f50backed DET | 36c | 43.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed WAS | 66c | 35.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed DET | 31c | 33.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed DET | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DET | 47c | 29.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DET (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-0.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. LionsLions won
- Commanders vs. Lions: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: DET (-1.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-2.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)DET won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 35.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 37.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.