NFL · resolved market
Spread: DET (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467a3dda6b45932c93d77aabaa44540831bc9a0a1acbe8f9b1e77751ff045a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DETof DET, WAS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked WAS | 53c | 1,005$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.16 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked WAS | 54c | 785$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.82 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed DET | 48c | 744.16$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.02 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed DET | 46c | 719$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked WAS | 64c | 491.44$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.22 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked DET | 33c | 473.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed WAS | 54c | 404$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked WAS | 57c | 286$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed DET | 43c | 276.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.42 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked DET | 45c | 256$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed DET | 49c | 165.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked WAS | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed WAS | 62c | 153$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed DET | 48c | 152$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed DET | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked DET | 39c | 149$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed DET | 39c | 136$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked DET | 38c | 112.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed WAS | 54c | 94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked WAS | 57c | 93.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed DET | 37c | 91.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed WAS | 59c | 62.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked DET | 45c | 58.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked DET | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked WAS | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked DET | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked DET | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DET | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed DET | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed WAS | 42c | 28.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed DET | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed DET | 58c | 21.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DET (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-0.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. LionsLions won
- Commanders vs. Lions: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: DET (-2.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-4.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)DET won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 35.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 37.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.