NFL · resolved market
Spread: DET (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc190e193184ac9d4657cf57ef2c040823e1505073c3ec918c4ec3d2a1794830b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DETof DET, WAS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed DET | 45c | 8,052$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,412.88 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked WAS | 55c | 3,799$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked WAS | 47c | 2,865$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.21 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked WAS | 45c | 1,551$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed WAS | 52c | 1,133$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.36 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed WAS | 52c | 1,054$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.63 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed WAS | 30c | 574.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.11 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked WAS | 42c | 551$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.05 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked WAS | 58c | 463$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.51 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked DET | 34c | 453.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed DET | 42c | 404.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.36 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed WAS | 54c | 315.24$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed WAS | 46c | 278.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked WAS | 66c | 182.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked WAS | 62c | 167$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked WAS | 55c | 154$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed WAS | 54c | 148.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked WAS | 44c | 120.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed DET | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed WAS | 39c | 88.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked WAS | 57c | 65.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…90b2backed DET | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked WAS | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked WAS | 55c | 53.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed WAS | 40c | 50.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed WAS | 41c | 44.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…de7cbacked WAS | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed WAS | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DET | 61c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DET (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-0.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. LionsLions won
- Commanders vs. Lions: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: DET (-1.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-4.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)DET won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 35.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 37.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.