TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Commanders, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$726,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$833,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $726,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Commanders45c356,845$158,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,904.67552%39 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Lions50c189,455$94,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,504.799554.7%52 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Commanders50c119,264$59,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,165.9725956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Lions51c94,448$48,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,263.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Lions49c68,825$33,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,275.793737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Lions78c66,049$51,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,530.685042%21 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed Lions64c19,978$12,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,247.481250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Commanders21c5,996$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.754835.4%17 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86b6…041bbacked Lions53c5,446$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Commanders52c5,111$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Commanders49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45010353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lions52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Lions51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4503844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lions50c4,939$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.619145.1%41 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Lions36c4,611$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.041457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Lions53c4,426$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.981250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf725…1e61backed Commanders0c4,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Lions47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1202250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Lions50c4,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.793256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Commanders47c3,774$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.0314850%74 W · 74 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Lions65c3,077$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Lions58c3,062$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lions53c3,004$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.7439447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Commanders37c2,631$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.7817648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Lions48c2,460$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Commanders46c2,270$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.7222550.7%114 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed Lions50c2,250$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Lions47c2,238$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.143357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Commanders50c2,219$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.0717350.9%88 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Lions59c2,207$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.045066%33 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Commanders37c2,139$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.983458.8%20 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb242…4312backed Commanders19c2,077$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Lions76c2,052$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.43040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed Lions49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Commanders50c2,026$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Lions78c2,022$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013e…65ddbacked Lions52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked Lions55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Lions49c1,829$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.134542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Commanders48c1,695$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.15350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Lions58c1,695$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Commanders53c1,591$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lions53c1,540$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.653154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Lions53c1,533$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.456134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Commanders49c1,421$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.052944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Lions48c1,352$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.08862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Commanders12c1,198$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.792842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Lions34c1,165$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Commanders50c1,076$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.623050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Lions64c1,053$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.238156.8%46 W · 35 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf647…0ccbbacked Lions79c1,011$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Commanders7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703225%8 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed Commanders50c920$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4604856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+30.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a7e…19b8backed Commanders53c828.3$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Commanders48c809.82$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7159453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Lions51c750$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.5411946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Lions36c715.97$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.2214438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lions49c687.9$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.366251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe857…ec19backed Lions45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Commanders48c659.47$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.254148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Commanders47c628.65$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.472944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Lions48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Commanders52c559.04$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.28146.9%38 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Lions46c554.2$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lions50c514.94$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4714366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Commanders54c480.34$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.882147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32d…23b4backed Commanders50c478.8$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Commanders48c472.76$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0810455.8%58 W · 46 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Lions62c471.03$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Lions52c452.08$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Commanders41c425.79$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.032572%18 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Lions62c424.34$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.841844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Commanders32c423.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Commanders50c415$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5912151.2%62 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa54…c182backed Lions62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1522634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1443…9e05backed Lions29c400$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Commanders50c392.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.561952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Commanders41c377.21$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2931056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Commanders53c305$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae8…42c1backed Commanders56c302.89$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1693040%12 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17d…6f86backed Lions52c300.71$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.951250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Commanders62c300$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.69862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Commanders61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Lions61c298.91$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.261838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Lions64c295.9$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Lions53c281.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Lions50c279.82$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.615244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Lions49c254.81$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Commanders47c253.61$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.89520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Lions51c245.78$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5811846.6%55 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Commanders49c200.79$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Commanders49c200.17$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Commanders48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed Lions52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Lions52c196.62$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Commanders41c194.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.935949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Lions52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Commanders58c189.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Lions53c181.19$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b9…a0fdbacked Commanders39c162.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.661650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.