NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf43c995769602717931615ca5c1934213432e89ddc7c2546b28b9c360228a40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Commanders, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $726,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $833,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $726,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Commanders | 45c | 356,845$158,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158,904.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Lions | 50c | 189,455$94,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,504.79 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Commanders | 50c | 119,264$59,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,165.97 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…22e1backed Lions | 51c | 94,448$48,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,263.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Lions | 49c | 68,825$33,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,275.79 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Lions | 78c | 66,049$51,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,530.68 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Lions | 64c | 19,978$12,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,247.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Commanders | 21c | 5,996$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.75 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…041bbacked Lions | 53c | 5,446$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Commanders | 52c | 5,111$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Commanders | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Lions | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Lions | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lions | 50c | 4,939$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.61 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Lions | 36c | 4,611$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Lions | 53c | 4,426$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…1e61backed Commanders | 0c | 4,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Lions | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Lions | 50c | 4,000$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.79 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Commanders | 47c | 3,774$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.03 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…fbb0backed Lions | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Lions | 58c | 3,062$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lions | 53c | 3,004$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.74 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Commanders | 37c | 2,631$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.78 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Lions | 48c | 2,460$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Commanders | 46c | 2,270$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.72 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Lions | 50c | 2,250$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Lions | 47c | 2,238$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.14 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Commanders | 50c | 2,219$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.07 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lions | 59c | 2,207$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.04 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Commanders | 37c | 2,139$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…4312backed Commanders | 19c | 2,077$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Lions | 76c | 2,052$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Lions | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Commanders | 50c | 2,026$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.9 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Lions | 78c | 2,022$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013e…65ddbacked Lions | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Lions | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Lions | 49c | 1,829$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.13 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Commanders | 48c | 1,695$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.1 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Lions | 58c | 1,695$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Commanders | 53c | 1,591$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.64 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lions | 53c | 1,540$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.65 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Lions | 53c | 1,533$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.45 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Commanders | 49c | 1,421$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…3a5cbacked Lions | 48c | 1,352$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Commanders | 12c | 1,198$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Lions | 34c | 1,165$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Commanders | 50c | 1,076$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.62 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Lions | 64c | 1,053$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.23 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Lions | 79c | 1,011$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Commanders | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…4091backed Commanders | 50c | 920$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…19b8backed Commanders | 53c | 828.3$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Commanders | 48c | 809.82$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.71 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Lions | 51c | 750$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.54 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Lions | 36c | 715.97$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.22 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lions | 49c | 687.9$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.36 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…ec19backed Lions | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Commanders | 48c | 659.47$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Commanders | 47c | 628.65$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Lions | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Commanders | 52c | 559.04$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Lions | 46c | 554.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lions | 50c | 514.94$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Commanders | 54c | 480.34$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Commanders | 50c | 478.8$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Commanders | 48c | 472.76$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Lions | 62c | 471.03$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Lions | 52c | 452.08$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Commanders | 41c | 425.79$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Lions | 62c | 424.34$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Commanders | 32c | 423.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Commanders | 50c | 415$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.59 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Lions | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…9e05backed Lions | 29c | 400$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Commanders | 50c | 392.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Commanders | 41c | 377.21$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Commanders | 53c | 305$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…42c1backed Commanders | 56c | 302.89$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Lions | 52c | 300.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Commanders | 62c | 300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Commanders | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Lions | 61c | 298.91$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Lions | 64c | 295.9$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Lions | 53c | 281.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Lions | 50c | 279.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Lions | 49c | 254.81$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Commanders | 47c | 253.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Lions | 51c | 245.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Commanders | 49c | 200.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Commanders | 49c | 200.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Commanders | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Lions | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Lions | 52c | 196.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Commanders | 41c | 194.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Lions | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Commanders | 58c | 189.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Lions | 53c | 181.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…a0fdbacked Commanders | 39c | 162.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Lionsthis page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-0.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. Lions: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: DET (-1.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-2.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: DET (-4.5)WAS won
- Spread: WAS (-1.5)DET won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 35.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 36.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 37.5Under won
- WAS vs. DET: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.