TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers14c2,258$308 inLost-$308.0179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners60c870.03$522 inWon+$347.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers24c489.99$117 inLost-$117.455,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers17c289$50 inLost-$49.958,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Milwaukee Brewers23c273$63 inLost-$62.641822.2%4 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-61.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers51c263.93$136 inLost-$135.668,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Milwaukee Brewers33c227.27$75 inLost-$7515639.1%61 W · 95 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Seattle Mariners34c160$54 inWon+$105.63256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners34c147.06$50 inWon+$97.0644245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers52c109.29$57 inLost-$56.8311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers12c103$12 inLost-$12.364,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Seattle Mariners59c99.99$59 inWon+$41.1558746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Seattle Mariners34c99.99$34 inWon+$65.9913946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers12c97$12 inLost-$11.641,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Milwaukee Brewers23c49.74$11 inLost-$11.225053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers67c44.77$30 inLost-$3094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners33c44.77$15 inWon+$303,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7d…7161backed Milwaukee Brewers56c35.71$20 inLost-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Milwaukee Brewers52c26.26$14 inLost-$13.6531957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Milwaukee Brewers41c25$10 inLost-$10.1720552.7%108 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.