MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d44b332447290684eaf820cd3542b0aec0460ded94aa790edb4c21acff10bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 40c | 6,186$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.17 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 4,685$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 39c | 894.16$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.72 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 38c | 804.08$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.53 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 61c | 800.15$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.09 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 62c | 787.92$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.51 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 599.98$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 79c | 583$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 37c | 554.21$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.73 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 525.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 516.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 63c | 493.13$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Under | 61c | 480.08$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.85 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 399$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 38c | 390$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 62c | 336.2$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 327.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 62c | 317.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Over | 79c | 308.81$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 60c | 296.26$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.94 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 43c | 282.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 62c | 226.69$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 38c | 223.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 38c | 189.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 175$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under | 60c | 168.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 159.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…359dbacked Over | 40c | 158.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 148.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 36c | 146.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 117.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 19c | 115.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 36c | 93.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 62c | 88.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 63c | 79.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 38c | 54.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 50.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Under | 62c | 49.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Under | 62c | 46.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Under | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 37c | 44.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 56c | 23.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 20.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.