MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c2d641f6f098bf973cdfe370b7dc8acacce7e81654ed4824d76ba3a2d7222b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 58c | 3,017$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.76 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 41c | 2,390$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 42c | 2,184$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed No | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 54c | 724.22$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…ab15backed No | 35c | 536.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 43c | 529.44$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.54 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked No | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 500$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 58c | 449.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.51 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 58c | 400$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 343$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 56c | 322$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.27 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed No | 59c | 320$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Yes | 42c | 307$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 57c | 176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 56c | 111.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 41c | 109.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 56c | 91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 42c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 65.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.