MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbbb07164d66678a0e8083abd44447dbc7b4b6ae18fb25427f01cf842bd9b3f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 9,291$5,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 39c | 4,728$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.86 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 39c | 2,276$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.53 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 1,356$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 40c | 1,156$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 39c | 1,114$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 753.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 57c | 590.15$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 504.85$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Under | 39c | 493.55$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 60c | 390$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under | 39c | 383.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 351.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 65c | 331.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 40c | 327.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 62c | 296$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 40c | 238.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 61c | 221.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 43c | 212.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 59c | 169.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 167.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 43c | 154$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 18c | 142$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 60c | 141.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 40c | 139.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 40c | 137.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 38c | 108.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 65c | 107.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 96.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 96.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 40c | 90.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 73c | 88.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 43c | 79.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 60c | 72.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 40c | 69.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 61c | 65.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 59c | 59.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 62c | 54.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Under | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 61c | 48.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Under | 40c | 48.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 57c | 36.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 38c | 34.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Over | 61c | 34.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 34.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 26.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 61c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.