TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers24c3,322$797 inLost-$797.1611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners76c2,494$1,895 inWon+$598.574,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers4c630$25 inLost-$25.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Milwaukee Brewers25c576.24$144 inLost-$144.0630548.9%149 W · 156 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners76c556.14$423 inWon+$132.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Seattle Mariners75c500$375 inWon+$1258045%36 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Milwaukee Brewers25c102.2$26 inLost-$25.7227448.2%132 W · 142 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Milwaukee Brewers25c88.76$22 inLost-$22.1952638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5a…9d75backed Milwaukee Brewers24c83.33$20 inLost-$2010515.2%16 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners75c76.76$58 inWon+$19.191,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers24c52.42$13 inLost-$12.588,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners75c43.22$32 inWon+$10.81,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Seattle Mariners75c22.96$17 inWon+$5.6658352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Seattle Mariners77c22$17 inWon+$5.0626857.1%153 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed Seattle Mariners76c14$11 inWon+$3.3612154.5%66 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Seattle Mariners76c13.65$10 inWon+$3.2847056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Mariners76c13.65$10 inWon+$3.2873355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.