NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df8d66c5f2a3b75543e25ed268f7dd0447161a1f436fc8240b24520186f1c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Senators, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,100 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 66c | 719.61$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Islanders | 67c | 598.98$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.66 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Senators | 31c | 507.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Islanders | 79c | 431.06$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Senators | 34c | 427.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Senators | 34c | 348.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d3…aa78backed Senators | 32c | 321$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…faabbacked Islanders | 68c | 275$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Senators | 33c | 275$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff40…c553backed Senators | 32c | 257$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…19a7backed Islanders | 68c | 257$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8f…2a02backed Islanders | 68c | 249$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…a1ffbacked Senators | 32c | 238$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…1cfcbacked Islanders | 68c | 226$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Senators | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…7e05backed Senators | 32c | 191$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Senators | 33c | 180.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Islanders | 67c | 173.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 22c | 152.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Islanders | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0e…b5cbbacked Senators | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Islanders | 66c | 111.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Senators | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Senators | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Senators | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Islanders | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 31c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Islanders | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…6c84backed Islanders | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 67c | 81.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Islanders | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Senators | 15c | 70.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Islanders | 69c | 56.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Islanders | 67c | 43.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Islanders | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Islanders | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…d3ddbacked Islanders | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Islanders | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Islanders | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Islanders | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Islanders | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Islanders | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Islanders vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.