TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanghai Sharks, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Shanghai Sharks76c16,714$12,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,986.984562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Zhejiang Lions23c6,675$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.966346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Zhejiang Lions26c6,229$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc575…8821backed Zhejiang Lions1c4,404$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Zhejiang Lions16c3,911$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.196116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Zhejiang Lions27c3,563$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zhejiang Lions31c3,013$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.424430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf752…101cbacked Shanghai Sharks76c2,486$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.8366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Zhejiang Lions22c2,309$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Zhejiang Lions24c2,023$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.516338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Shanghai Sharks80c1,877$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.969100%9 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+99.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Zhejiang Lions23c1,775$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7213046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb283…2744backed Zhejiang Lions19c1,577$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Shanghai Sharks71c1,559$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.381662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Shanghai Sharks75c1,437$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.951656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanghai Sharks67c1,385$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.873060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Zhejiang Lions25c1,381$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Zhejiang Lions25c1,346$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.565230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb666…4188backed Shanghai Sharks75c1,317$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Zhejiang Lions24c1,310$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Zhejiang Lions34c1,226$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.494344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94e…f5d2backed Zhejiang Lions26c1,134$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Shanghai Sharks78c1,062$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Zhejiang Lions25c1,030$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.311030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Zhejiang Lions23c999.97$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.993855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Shanghai Sharks66c909.09$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.093154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shanghai Sharks75c893.76$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.234443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Shanghai Sharks66c879.69$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.097159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Zhejiang Lions26c866$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-79%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Zhejiang Lions24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee29…89d8backed Zhejiang Lions25c831.36$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c4…caaebacked Zhejiang Lions21c799.95$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Zhejiang Lions18c748.18$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.65844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Shanghai Sharks76c700$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ee…7774backed Zhejiang Lions17c677.35$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Shanghai Sharks73c668.78$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+127.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Shanghai Sharks75c666$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Shanghai Sharks76c659.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.594557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54ee…a524backed Zhejiang Lions25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Zhejiang Lions24c599.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shanghai Sharks56c564.89$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.174551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Shanghai Sharks71c541.27$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.431675%12 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Zhejiang Lions23c526.65$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.132842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b7…125cbacked Shanghai Sharks60c518.03$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Shanghai Sharks75c507.08$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.771546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f7…4871backed Zhejiang Lions25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Zhejiang Lions26c499.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf8…043dbacked Zhejiang Lions26c476.76$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea17…c4f5backed Shanghai Sharks77c468$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Zhejiang Lions13c448$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4410947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Zhejiang Lions16c427.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.64443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Shanghai Sharks76c402.21$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Zhejiang Lions26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Zhejiang Lions18c389.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.773145.2%14 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Shanghai Sharks71c382.27$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1092466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf99…74babacked Shanghai Sharks68c366.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.781040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Zhejiang Lions29c350.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…6359backed Zhejiang Lions31c324.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe607…eaa0backed Shanghai Sharks72c320$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Shanghai Sharks72c317.02$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.293345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Shanghai Sharks76c313.15$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.451656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Zhejiang Lions23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Zhejiang Lions27c299.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.993036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x499a…a047backed Zhejiang Lions37c299.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ef…eb67backed Shanghai Sharks68c293.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…6e95backed Shanghai Sharks64c289.96$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Zhejiang Lions29c276.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Zhejiang Lions33c273.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.979551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Zhejiang Lions32c273.11$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.555648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…f2dfbacked Shanghai Sharks77c272.73$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Zhejiang Lions31c271.04$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.932157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa8…8b99backed Zhejiang Lions14c268.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Shanghai Sharks76c264.11$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.081464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60da…a14ebacked Zhejiang Lions38c260.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Shanghai Sharks70c247.45$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.476844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Zhejiang Lions26c245.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.922142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Shanghai Sharks74c230$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.635752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed Shanghai Sharks75c215.75$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd95a…b567backed Shanghai Sharks79c209.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Zhejiang Lions42c208.05$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8537052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Shanghai Sharks76c199.97$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.423644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Shanghai Sharks73c199.19$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a0…d943backed Zhejiang Lions25c195.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Shanghai Sharks73c193.42$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+124.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Zhejiang Lions27c186.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Zhejiang Lions17c186.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5713545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c9…ccbabacked Shanghai Sharks65c181.18$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shanghai Sharks70c179.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9426935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2691…6c3cbacked Shanghai Sharks64c177.76$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd68f…6fdfbacked Zhejiang Lions30c175.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Zhejiang Lions29c166.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Shanghai Sharks62c160.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2294…94cdbacked Shanghai Sharks80c156.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…eb63backed Zhejiang Lions8c152.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Shanghai Sharks70c151.72$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.222751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Shanghai Sharks75c146.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.671546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Zhejiang Lions42c142.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f190backed Shanghai Sharks66c136.58$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Shanghai Sharks70c130$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…59fcbacked Shanghai Sharks76c130$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.