Tennis · resolved market
Winnipeg: Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Rice
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e06b0ae4a91fdd2afcbf192be41131810a6261c571c4f151991e00cad2d2d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keegan Riceof Nicolas Arseneault, Keegan Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keegan Rice | 64c | 1,080$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Nicolas Arseneault | 36c | 944.44$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 37c | 710.46$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.8 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Keegan Rice | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Keegan Rice | 73c | 623.9$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Keegan Rice | 77c | 616.86$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 30c | 598.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 584.61$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nicolas Arseneault | 20c | 507.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Nicolas Arseneault | 7c | 435.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Nicolas Arseneault | 31c | 334.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 330.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 34c | 330$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Keegan Rice | 64c | 318.85$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Keegan Rice | 65c | 307.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Nicolas Arseneault | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 281.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 269.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Rice | 75c | 230.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 18c | 213.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Nicolas Arseneault | 36c | 192$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 154.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…52f4backed Keegan Rice | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Keegan Rice | 79c | 132$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…904dbacked Keegan Rice | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fe…df2fbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 101.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Rice | 73c | 101.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 24c | 98.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 90.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Keegan Rice | 74c | 78.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked Keegan Rice | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Keegan Rice | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Nicolas Arseneault | 39c | 67.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Nicolas Arseneault | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Nicolas Arseneault | 41c | 60.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Nicolas Arseneault | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Keegan Rice | 64c | 54.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nicolas Arseneault | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…71c9backed Keegan Rice | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 162 | 58.6%95 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…21a1backed Nicolas Arseneault | 39c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 763 | 55.6%424 W · 339 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…4820backed Nicolas Arseneault | 22c | 47.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Keegan Rice | 30c | 44.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nicolas Arseneault | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Keegan Rice | 64c | 40.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Keegan Rice | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…422ebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 40c | 35.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Nicolas Arseneault | 34c | 32.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Keegan Rice | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…d0b6backed Keegan Rice | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Keegan Rice | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Keegan Rice | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Keegan Rice | 61c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Keegan Rice | 64c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Keegan Rice | 63c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Keegan Rice | 79c | 24.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 169 | 64.5%109 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Keegan Rice | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Keegan Rice | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keegan Rice | 57c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keegan Rice | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keegan Rice | 72c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Keegan Rice | 66c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Keegan Rice | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 496 | 58.1%288 W · 208 L | +32.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Winnipeg: Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Ricethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Arseneault vs RiceRice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.