CS2 · resolved market
Thunderpick WC: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Venom
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e168bff68f26b6ca21af5c78d70fb6196e481ca31f00e675c4b0353855b6286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Venomof NIP, Venom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Venom | 27c | 2,531$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.2 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed NIP | 73c | 1,625$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.29 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed NIP | 74c | 800$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Venom | 27c | 800$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Venom | 31c | 735$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked NIP | 77c | 543.59$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed NIP | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed NIP | 77c | 400.02$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.54 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed NIP | 73c | 328$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.44 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed NIP | 72c | 320$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -19.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Venom | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Venom | 21c | 257.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.79 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Venom | 51c | 247.84$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked NIP | 73c | 220$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Venom | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed NIP | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed NIP | 56c | 177.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Venom | 24c | 171.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked NIP | 44c | 150.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed NIP | 75c | 136.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed NIP | 79c | 127.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Venom | 35c | 122.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked NIP | 69c | 111$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Venom | 78c | 106.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Venom | 31c | 102.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked NIP | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Venom | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed NIP | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Venom | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked NIP | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Venom | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NIP | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed NIP | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed NIP | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed NIP | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed NIP | 69c | 25.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed NIP | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.