TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Delray Beach Open: Zachary Svajda vs Frances Tiafoe

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tiafoeof Svajda, Tiafoe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$617,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$749,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8dbf…53bebacked Tiafoe68c90,174$60,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,204.561250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Svajda32c71,768$22,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,965.7311242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tiafoe58c42,902$24,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,086.872,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Svajda41c35,561$14,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,674.427,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Tiafoe60c29,691$17,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,819.5399044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Svajda44c29,465$13,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,100.3211,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Tiafoe60c28,406$17,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,318.497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Svajda40c25,655$10,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,182.376026.7%16 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Svajda36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.986552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Svajda34c19,327$6,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,609.2431332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tiafoe54c17,895$9,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,167.891,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Svajda36c15,366$5,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,567.2781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Tiafoe65c12,078$7,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,279.5792655.9%518 W · 408 L+25.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac0…9d95backed Svajda48c12,025$5,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7721361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Tiafoe59c9,985$5,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,087.333,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tiafoe53c9,685$5,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,520.346,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Tiafoe63c8,284$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.4813456.7%76 W · 58 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Svajda42c8,242$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,422.278,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Svajda41c7,362$3,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.482,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Svajda44c6,527$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.3955646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Svajda41c5,999$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.772,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Tiafoe64c5,950$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.0243863.9%280 W · 158 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Svajda43c5,814$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50027360.1%164 W · 109 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tiafoe60c5,229$3,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.3765647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…6ccdbacked Tiafoe64c4,923$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.281580%12 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4304…1c4ebacked Tiafoe64c4,585$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.66100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tiafoe71c3,628$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.274,41151.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L+137.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Svajda43c3,481$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Tiafoe58c3,449$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.4336968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa10…0570backed Tiafoe64c3,430$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Svajda3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99755.3%4 W · 71 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x310f…8e5abacked Tiafoe65c3,137$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Svajda36c3,104$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.8228338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Tiafoe63c3,092$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.044047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Tiafoe64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Svajda11c2,908$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Tiafoe63c2,897$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.567951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Svajda37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Svajda36c2,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90012450.8%63 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Tiafoe61c2,492$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.814568.3%99 W · 46 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Svajda40c2,441$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.5228444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab6b…4026backed Tiafoe64c2,400$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8641464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Tiafoe60c2,264$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.6871852.8%379 W · 339 L+35.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8082…4d66backed Tiafoe64c2,221$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.25658.9%33 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Svajda47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,67250.1%837 W · 835 L+30.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Svajda38c2,090$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80019938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Svajda37c2,058$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.9147057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfded…312cbacked Tiafoe64c1,912$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.322770.4%19 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6007…d1bebacked Tiafoe64c1,798$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.281656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Tiafoe67c1,622$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.845658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa83b…def4backed Tiafoe63c1,600$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdafb…0bfcbacked Tiafoe64c1,590$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e7…2f52backed Svajda37c1,580$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9206…42a6backed Tiafoe64c1,566$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.825858.6%34 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Tiafoe65c1,535$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.314250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Tiafoe55c1,517$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.7270252.8%371 W · 331 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Svajda45c1,500$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6708762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Svajda36c1,500$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.991540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Svajda40c1,479$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.621338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Svajda40c1,461$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.149950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Svajda36c1,434$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.331,63450%817 W · 817 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Tiafoe53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Svajda37c1,379$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.9525433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Tiafoe64c1,370$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.2112952.7%68 W · 61 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Tiafoe70c1,338$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.271,09350.4%551 W · 542 L-18.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…204cbacked Tiafoe64c1,320$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Tiafoe61c1,302$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.824,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Svajda37c1,267$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8326545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Svajda40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Svajda37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Svajda37c1,044$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.029738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa42…2ff3backed Svajda41c1,005$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.634742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Tiafoe60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Tiafoe60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,40428.7%403 W · 1,001 L+4.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Tiafoe67c900.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.9924060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Tiafoe64c893.93$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.713745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Tiafoe60c875.37$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.1527063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Svajda39c789.75$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30662345.4%283 W · 340 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Svajda38c785.06$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6243042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Svajda39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Svajda26c764.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,12827.9%315 W · 813 L+1.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Tiafoe71c758$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.2669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Svajda34c750$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.54,07039.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L+92.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x310b…98a7backed Tiafoe63c744.06$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Tiafoe64c713.38$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8225464.6%164 W · 90 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Svajda37c674.39$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.251,96546.4%911 W · 1,054 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Tiafoe55c666.72$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.9138739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Svajda29c664.44$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.91,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afe…aec0backed Svajda45c663.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Svajda41c646.62$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7522634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Tiafoe64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22565651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Svajda44c578.09$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0210348.5%50 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Svajda38c576.51$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9265149.2%320 W · 331 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3b…4afdbacked Svajda36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Svajda39c506.85$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6712147.1%57 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Svajda40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Svajda36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18018548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b1…072cbacked Svajda37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Svajda40c497$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5952037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Svajda39c492.69$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.182,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.