TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBRof PARIVISION, MIBR
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked MIBR68c17,000$11,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,432.4936753.7%197 W · 170 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed PARIVISION34c12,376$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.352242.5%222 W · 300 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION30c6,619$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.652,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked MIBR58c5,761$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.3542037.9%159 W · 261 L-17.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION25c5,343$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.793,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PARIVISION26c5,260$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.051,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked MIBR52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9976657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION19c4,768$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.492,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed PARIVISION41c4,445$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.1836845.1%166 W · 202 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION28c4,025$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.484,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked PARIVISION38c3,923$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50024438.9%95 W · 149 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked PARIVISION48c3,552$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.077040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed PARIVISION32c3,471$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.3461834.6%214 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc93…718bbacked PARIVISION1c3,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked MIBR74c2,703$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.6846565.6%305 W · 160 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed MIBR59c2,522$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.4717249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed PARIVISION1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed PARIVISION1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed MIBR55c1,831$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.317754.8%97 W · 80 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked MIBR62c1,638$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.283,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MIBR58c1,600$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.991,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION26c1,438$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.426,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed PARIVISION10c1,408$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0812118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MIBR62c1,253$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.85,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed MIBR60c1,176$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.0514839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed MIBR52c1,151$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.164955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed PARIVISION19c1,049$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19838835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked MIBR74c1,045$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.432875%21 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed PARIVISION48c961.51$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.522045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked MIBR69c955.38$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.1218743.9%82 W · 105 L-10.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION47c954.31$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.822,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MIBR71c943.42$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.272,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked MIBR69c900$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28122641.2%93 W · 133 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION10c892.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0257422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked MIBR59c850$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.519857.1%113 W · 85 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked PARIVISION24c778.37$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2343253%229 W · 203 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked MIBR72c726.08$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.0826546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed PARIVISION39c613.77$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.937353.4%39 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe28c…ffb3backed PARIVISION2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa981…ab19backed PARIVISION2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+172.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked PARIVISION48c589.58$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28332542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked MIBR63c589.09$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.843,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PARIVISION33c512.59$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.814,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked MIBR69c507.05$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2763038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked PARIVISION20c501.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked PARIVISION48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24040349.1%198 W · 205 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked PARIVISION44c499.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked MIBR56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22047738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MIBR64c491.24$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.851,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION27c456.52$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.957,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed MIBR65c448$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5946246.8%216 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed MIBR70c422.69$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.81580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked PARIVISION24c419.52$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6813751.8%71 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20c…f4c7backed PARIVISION42c414.04$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.89960.6%60 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed PARIVISION20c399.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.622,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked MIBR70c398.75$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6319643.4%85 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PARIVISION30c389.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.365,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed PARIVISION26c382.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0537440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed PARIVISION51c360.79$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.841723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked MIBR64c348.76$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.161,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed PARIVISION30c344.03$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.82,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed PARIVISION44c335.08$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.091,00748.5%488 W · 519 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe7…121bbacked MIBR55c323.15$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6315655.1%86 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed PARIVISION47c320.34$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15061638.1%235 W · 381 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked MIBR63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4622243.7%97 W · 125 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked MIBR65c307.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.315147%71 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed PARIVISION32c301.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.591,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed PARIVISION34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed PARIVISION7c295.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77539.4%5 W · 48 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-76.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed PARIVISION16c287.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4525042.4%106 W · 144 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PARIVISION27c285.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.762,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MIBR68c267.28$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.535,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb47…3502backed PARIVISION40c251.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed MIBR72c248.49$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3875438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION34c245$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.370423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PARIVISION39c235.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9153945.5%245 W · 294 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed PARIVISION18c235.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.476546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION31c235.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7360953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked MIBR71c231.82$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8248566.2%321 W · 164 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked MIBR75c223$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.711,63243.2%705 W · 927 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed PARIVISION18c222.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029731%92 W · 205 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked PARIVISION29c218.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1213060.8%79 W · 51 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed MIBR54c218.07$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0336749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION47c213.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed PARIVISION48c208.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021053.8%113 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed PARIVISION41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.521,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed PARIVISION22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed MIBR66c197.01$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0114153.9%76 W · 65 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…5ce4backed PARIVISION40c191.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5914949%73 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed MIBR57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4453850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3504…d4f1backed MIBR58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4110646.2%49 W · 57 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PARIVISION28c169.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8389046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dec…058cbacked PARIVISION46c165.08$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked MIBR67c165$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.752,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked PARIVISION35c164.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION18c159.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.762,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd62…4e9abacked MIBR65c154.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.152360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe4…8cafbacked PARIVISION47c148.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0010…9ee3backed MIBR69c145.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.228868.2%60 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.