Asian League · resolved market
Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7beaae097e9e2d7c5620e1229697b1488d262c3b76027d6908b8d80c473fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 5,613$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.88 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 1,422$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 8c | 1,005$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 19c | 722$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed Under | 79c | 418.61$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 328.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 317.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 20c | 273.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…1834backed Over | 22c | 272.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 22c | 245.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 76c | 203.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 174.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 16c | 154.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 13c | 153.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 13c | 153.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 12c | 153.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 77c | 149.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 21c | 141.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 9c | 131.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 9c | 130.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 66c | 125.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 125.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Over | 22c | 125.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 15c | 116.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…03c2backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 18c | 55.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 21c | 55.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 22c | 47.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Under | 79c | 42.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 41.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 40.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…097ebacked Under | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 31.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 46c | 28.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Dalian Yingbo FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)Dalian Yingbo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.