Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e931de7e783cc69c9c8f3c21853ea89716b6c887fcb01f06bd470afd6524b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 19c | 752.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 208.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 201.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 186.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 185.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 175.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 164$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 30c | 132.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 70c | 124.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 20c | 123.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 89.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 21c | 87.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 87.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 21c | 87.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 18c | 77.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 75.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 74.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 69.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 67.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 67.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 20c | 64.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 58.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 46.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 39.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 39.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 37.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 67c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.