Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf39e143e909f4a2c74b931c6b474afe63b524a1a5f96414371556d08eecbfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 690.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 28c | 277$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 249.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 245.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 171.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 10c | 156.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 110.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 102.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 95.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 82.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 82.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 75.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 65.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 63.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 29c | 57.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 28c | 57.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 57.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 54.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 52.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 50.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 46.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 39.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 38.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 37c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 28c | 37.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 67c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 67c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 33.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.