Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x088c6cc54f23e45283830470b5e049c792384ba6c13478f0e1f53e21f7ad8a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 4c | 646.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 28c | 564.2$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 40c | 489.81$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.08 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 254.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 242.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 40c | 237.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 18c | 217.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 180.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 173.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 167.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 76c | 162.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 150.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 113.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 111.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 96.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 39c | 83.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 62c | 82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 80.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 80.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 80.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 63c | 77.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 76.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 75.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 60c | 62.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 61.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 35c | 60.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 41c | 57.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 57.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 55.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 55.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 59c | 53.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 62c | 48.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 45.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 42.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 41.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 63c | 39.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 39.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 37.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 36.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 62c | 34.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 30.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 27.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 24.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 21.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…e731backed No | 66c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 17.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.