Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eab8ab8742ec2601508a8cf687c245e299050ca2c50dbe7bdf7b05495bcf7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,640$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 6c | 3,600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 13c | 3,121$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.65 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…aca6backed No | 79c | 2,400$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 23c | 1,742$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…82acbacked No | 2c | 1,505$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,028$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.9 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…6fbabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 910.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.54 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 14c | 574$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.75 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 41c | 560.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 19c | 541.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 45c | 400$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.7 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked No | 65c | 389.69$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 354.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.55 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…e451backed Yes | 60c | 348.82$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 73c | 318.53$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.72 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 21c | 316.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.63 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 9c | 313.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 16c | 288.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.61 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 12c | 250.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.47 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked Yes | 25c | 237.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 45c | 225.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 72c | 208.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed No | 17c | 204.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 21c | 199.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 13c | 188.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 10c | 182.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…34e5backed Yes | 28c | 177.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…bf9dbacked Yes | 28c | 135.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 17c | 134.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 28c | 131.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 13c | 126$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…20a6backed Yes | 19c | 104.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 21c | 63.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8551…1b79backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 77c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…e2a7backed Yes | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…08d5backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.