Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ec3d5ffaf3deaaa839edf5acb19120cabbe0b8197eb6981e4c8848f98c03e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 2,840$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda0…cfabbacked No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…8bdcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…750abacked No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…8848backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…fee2backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…8c5ebacked No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…5905backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…18fabacked No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…3145backed No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…de2ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…36efbacked No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…42c6backed No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…150dbacked No | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…04b6backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…c0d6backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…b1cebacked Yes | 50c | 1,383$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219b…2de6backed Yes | 50c | 1,382$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8326…9630backed Yes | 50c | 1,382$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…eda0backed No | 50c | 1,382$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…a53fbacked No | 50c | 1,382$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed Yes | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…2b10backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 66c | 895.25$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.7 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 44c | 679.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.67 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 15c | 616.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 610$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 72c | 602.28$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.55 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 22c | 484.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Yes | 51c | 299.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked No | 49c | 299.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 46c | 290$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 71c | 261.26$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 40c | 244.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 69c | 220$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 219.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 74c | 173$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 29c | 165.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed Yes | 52c | 151.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 129.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked No | 37c | 120.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 28c | 120.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed No | 27c | 117.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 10c | 100.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 16c | 83.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 63c | 79.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 74.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 24c | 72.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 28c | 68.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 64.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 59.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446f…45b5backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…d8a3backed No | 61c | 46.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 41c | 46.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked No | 35c | 42.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac6…65cdbacked Yes | 48c | 38.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…9ffabacked Yes | 58c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 45c | 30.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…0102backed Yes | 57c | 28.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 47c | 26.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…cb72backed No | 63c | 24.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on December 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on December 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.