Premier League · resolved market
Will Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4efeef342048a75fd399f5a7e19ddd25f53ec435170cbab13dcbafd4b4a797ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,355 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 66c | 8,967$5,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.44 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 33c | 8,206$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,689.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 37c | 4,010$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 68c | 1,993$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.75 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 1,261$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.3 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 1,179$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.85 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 68c | 592.51$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Yes | 29c | 522.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 387.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 31c | 370.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…f68ebacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb91…0cacbacked Yes | 35c | 305.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 31c | 294.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 274.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 35c | 222.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 32c | 222.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -17.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 36c | 205.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Yes | 35c | 200.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 183.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 70c | 169.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 35c | 144.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 33c | 137.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 29c | 135.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 15c | 135.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…1484backed Yes | 34c | 115.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…f0f4backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 18c | 83.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 33c | 82.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 69.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 60.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a02…0cfabacked Yes | 34c | 58.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 50.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 41c | 48.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Yes | 32c | 44.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…6a0cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 36.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
- Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.