TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,321 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Padres62c23,855$14,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,790.31,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Orioles38c20,473$7,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,693.2616347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Orioles38c20,124$7,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,493.9219649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Padres59c16,444$9,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,758.9711345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Padres62c13,166$8,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,162.7638043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Padres5c10,249$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Orioles37c9,689$3,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,103.8526949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Padres46c8,681$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.551,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Padres61c7,960$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,855.651,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles37c6,510$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,093.5743949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles68c6,286$4,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.341,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles50c6,241$3,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,126.2321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Orioles38c5,173$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.9344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cc9…56d0backed Orioles40c5,030$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0182050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Padres62c4,923$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.1363152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Padres63c4,761$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.3915650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Padres8c4,115$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.162,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…f405backed Padres63c3,832$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01a…2485backed Padres60c3,505$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1031145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Orioles53c3,397$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.7812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Orioles38c3,382$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.0414949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Padres61c3,085$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.852360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Padres41c2,978$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Padres1c2,613$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.834754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Padres25c2,511$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.861,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Padres51c2,262$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.7313149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles38c2,129$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.981,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Orioles37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26016945%76 W · 93 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10e…beedbacked Padres23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.63046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…4106backed Orioles39c1,882$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Padres64c1,875$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20034550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles38c1,850$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14750843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89f8…3a79backed Padres49c1,778$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Padres63c1,775$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.946538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Orioles40c1,650$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99016349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres61c1,479$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.372,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6ea5backed Padres63c1,200$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7562751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Padres4c1,184$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.211838.1%45 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Orioles41c1,142$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.386443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cfd…9227backed Orioles39c1,082$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…d4f3backed Orioles39c1,039$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles38c1,019$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.7824547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Orioles71c1,018$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.226,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c6b…c3dabacked Orioles40c1,012$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Padres60c1,011$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.69842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x918e…3203backed Padres60c1,005$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Orioles36c999.97$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9832651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Padres60c998.11$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.871,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ac…cf0dbacked Padres60c995$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e89…e67abacked Orioles40c988$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+86.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orioles41c975.61$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6165248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ed…82c6backed Padres43c957.51$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7310441.3%43 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Orioles52c876$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Padres62c873$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.2638751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Padres27c822.98$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.826417.2%11 W · 53 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles37c800$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50483248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Padres30c774.44$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles40c749.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.991,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles38c700$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43444443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles62c685.66$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0676456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Padres64c598$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.7351953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f2…edf8backed Padres60c585.99$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.594955.1%27 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles38c561.78$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.351347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Padres51c557.41$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5213946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Orioles48c531.44$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.832965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Orioles40c500.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1216552.1%86 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Padres10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles39c499.92$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Padres3c462.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.375053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Padres60c416$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.61,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Padres50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Padres64c390.63$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-55.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Padres23c360.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8213852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Padres18c355.36$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9643153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles39c349.96$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.471,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Padres19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8918649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Padres15c296$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.92245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles66c285.29$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2370841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516a…84f6backed Padres64c282.58$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.156435.9%23 W · 41 L-11.6wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Orioles56c264$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.499044.4%40 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Orioles39c256$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1631347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles39c255$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.951,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Orioles40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15017946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1888…e1cbbacked Orioles40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…7294backed Padres63c249.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles40c237.5$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Padres61c224$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6424253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Padres55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205950.8%30 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Padres12c210.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.933137.5%124 W · 207 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Padres61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Orioles39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1225060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Orioles39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1225246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.