TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6715…9365backed Yes23c1,718$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.677427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No69c563.53$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.228655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes28c482.19$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.541526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes35c456.46$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.775547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c387.56$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3723551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c369.61$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6823459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c340.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.397335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c285.87$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3927143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes25c244.34$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.172065%13 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes29c239.55$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.0812040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No50c224.97$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.233324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c208.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes35c207.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+80.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No79c184.5$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.124916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…3797backed Yes54c181.63$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+229.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c164.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes29c155$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fb…fae7backed Yes39c154.44$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes40c150.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.442729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c142.45$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes34c142$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.46835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes28c138.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.315014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No76c130.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.228865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c128.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5252850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No67c112.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c111.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7416254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No76c106.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.166357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca92…52adbacked Yes33c103.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c100.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0916051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.992951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes37c96.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c92.27$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No66c87.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.627057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes48c86.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.075052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No63c82.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2615954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No64c77.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.415056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No67c75.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.453548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes34c70.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.587236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes26c69.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.952152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+123%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No69c66.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No59c65.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6216755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No68c61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7820065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes31c60.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.627129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.416738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes39c58.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.784951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes31c57.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.832161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No66c56.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9914445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes36c54.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.51per pick35cpaid+163.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No70c53.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No74c53.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.611776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes75c53.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.454269%29 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c50.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5944428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes30c48.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.832835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No72c47.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes37c47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.827741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c46.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.785756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes41c45.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.861464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes33c40.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.955913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No74c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No68c35.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.433164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed Yes31c34.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No68c34.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.072147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c33.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5916852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes57c31.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.787248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c30.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7414753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c84…be53backed Yes52c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No64c29.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.961833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No68c27.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.772347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No70c25.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No69c24.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No75c24.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.171560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa9…dc4dbacked No63c23.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No69c22.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4416850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c20.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7715558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.728558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No79c19.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No63c19.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc31f…f04abacked Yes79c18.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.873100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No69c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.