World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3a12e15400d9e4a919a9a20b514fa062877c5e32bbb867421fe7cb762caff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 23c | 1,718$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.67 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 563.53$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.22 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 482.19$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 456.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.77 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 387.56$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 369.61$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 340.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 285.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 244.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 239.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.08 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 50c | 224.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 208.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 35c | 207.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 79c | 184.5$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 54c | 181.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +229.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 164.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 39c | 154.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 150.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 142.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 142$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 28c | 138.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 130.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 128.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 67c | 112.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 111.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 106.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca92…52adbacked Yes | 33c | 103.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 100.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 37c | 96.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 92.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 87.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 48c | 86.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 82.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 77.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 67c | 75.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 34c | 70.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 26c | 69.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 66.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 65.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 31c | 60.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 39c | 58.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 31c | 57.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 56.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 35cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 53.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 53.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 53.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 50.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 48.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 46.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 45.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 35.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 31c | 34.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 34.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 33.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 57c | 31.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…be53backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 64c | 29.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 27.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 25.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 24.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 75c | 24.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…dc4dbacked No | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 22.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 79c | 19.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 79c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.