TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes50c899.84$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.472339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed No48c831.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.752317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No45c562.37$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.078655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52c6…4347backed No50c419.85$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c386.95$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7623551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c262.86$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No49c241.46$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.514652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c231.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No46c223.47$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed No57c222.07$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.29850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+86.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes52c218.69$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.685644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No43c200.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.517057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes52c198.46$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.61947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes59c155$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No50c138.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.676357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes54c136.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.972065%13 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c124.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.993756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No49c123.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes50c121.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722e…faddbacked No42c120.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+54.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No50c117$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c107.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.511,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No47c106.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3318762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes51c106.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No48c106.32$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1114753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No52c101.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5616850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.711752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0514842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32fb…fae7backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes59c99.86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.344070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes52c99.14$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.466238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes49c95.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9710837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.217345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No31c89.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.366346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c89.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9127143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes46c87.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes71c86.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8214126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No48c84.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7516852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No35c84.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.497335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes51c84.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes57c84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.886835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes53c82.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.681526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes37c81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.979936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes45c78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.33839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No48c77.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.114553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No49c76.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.842528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No47c74.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7815056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c74.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes66c74.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.081050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No49c72.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8416755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4911230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No48c69.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0416254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No49c68.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7514445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes58c66.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.592147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No47c60.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0520065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No47c58.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9216450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No48c55.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.728937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes59c54.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2918638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c53.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c53.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6518662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee2b…a97abacked Yes59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…437ebacked No51c50.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed No42c49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed Yes56c48.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.16540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2284…dd0bbacked Yes53c48.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c47.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0852850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes53c46.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.658865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No48c46.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1616051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…b81fbacked No51c46.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes51c44.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes58c43.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No50c42.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes43c42.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes53c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No48c41.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.834443.2%19 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No45c39.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.653663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes53c39.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-48.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No49c38.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5114954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes47c36.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No35c36.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.453164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.642536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No45c34.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.863548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes45c31.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+179.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No46c31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d5…01e8backed Yes48c30.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes58c30.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes53c30.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.987248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c84…be53backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.826448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.