MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f4bc96bd5adcd470cba68d7463a329c5cddf7e5efbfec1a61b33e7d71f25ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 47c | 69,477$32,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,601.49 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 57,995$30,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,708.42 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 20,438$10,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,627.53 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 47c | 9,682$4,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,131.46 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 4,037$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.07 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 2,426$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 53c | 2,319$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.42 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,435$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.77 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 49c | 975$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.75 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 889$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 861.26$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 538$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 536.78$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 49c | 461.72$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.19 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 459.94$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 49c | 414$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 44c | 303.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.84 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 273.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 267.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 253.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 201.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 48c | 194.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 191.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 152.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Under | 56c | 147.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 137.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4065…8a00backed Over | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 52c | 132.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Under | 42c | 105.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 56c | 92.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 87.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 87.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 75.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 69.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 65.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 52c | 62.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Over | 48c | 62.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…6304backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 48c | 53.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 53.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Under | 53c | 47.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 37.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Over | 48c | 30.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 43c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Under | 53c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…62dbbacked Over | 48c | 23.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…d232backed Under | 53c | 23.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 53c | 22.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 52c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 72c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.